NRS pension assumptions at 30 September: discount 3.6–4.0%, return 6.0%

Norsk RegnskapsStiftelse has fixed its recommended actuarial assumptions for measuring Norwegian defined-benefit pension obligations as of 30 September 2026Regnskapsstiftelsen, for use under IAS 19 Ytelser til ansatte and NRS 6 Pensjonskostnader. The recommendations take a Norwegian undertaking with an open defined-benefit plan as their basis: employees averaging in their forties and a weighted duration of the pension obligation of 20–25 years. Undertakings with a materially different profile, such as a closed plan with a shorter horizon, use the supplementary information in the appendices. Municipalities and county municipalities have their own rules for setting assumptions, including regulation of pensions in payment and deferred rights.

The recommended discount rate is 4.0 % based on covered-bond (OMF) yieldsRegnskapsstiftelsen and 3.6 % based on government-bond yieldsRegnskapsstiftelsen. Under IAS 19, post-employment benefit obligations are discounted using market yields at the end of the reporting period on high quality corporate bonds, or government-bond yields where there is no deep market in such bonds, with currency and term consistent with the obligations. The worked examples give a weighted average rate of 3.8 % for a short-duration profile and 3.6 % for a long-duration profile on a government-bond basis, and 4.2 % and 4.0 % respectively on an OMF basis. In practice the discount rate is broadly unchanged since the previous update: medium-term rates rose considerably, but long rates fell, so the effects offset each other.

Expected long-term return on plan assets, estimated only under NRS 6, is ca. 6.0 %Regnskapsstiftelsen, based on a normal asset allocation at Norwegian life companies starting from a risk-free rate of ca. 4.5 %. The 15-year rate rose 0.4 %, which lifts the expected return and with it pension regulation in private plans. Expected inflation is held at ca. 2.0 %Regnskapsstiftelsen, anchored in Norges Bank's operational inflation target, with SSB and Norges Bank September 2026 forecasts for 2027–2029 averaging ca. 2.3 %.

Expected average nominal salary growth for a typical undertaking is 3.75 %Regnskapsstiftelsen: expected real wage growth of 1.75 % plus 2.0 % inflation, rising to 4.00 % with an average career supplement of 0.25 % per yearRegnskapsstiftelsen. Pension rights accruing in folketrygden are regulated with expected average salary growth excluding the career supplement, i.e. 3.75 %. For funded private-sector plans with minimum regulation, the estimated pension increase is ca. 3.2 %Regnskapsstiftelsen: ca. 6.0 % expected return, less an average beregningsrente in the private sector of ca. 2.3 %, less 0.5 % for the effect of fluctuating annual returns and buffer-fund allocations. The increase cannot exceed the year's percentage rise in grunnbeløpet (G)Regnskapsstiftelsen. Plans whose terms track G use expected G growth instead, adjusted down 0.25 % because the yield curve falls 15–30 years ahead.

Pensions in payment from public-sector schemes are regulated with the average of price and wage growth, giving 2.75 %: a 3.5 % wage component in the payout period, after the same 0.25 % yield-curve adjustment, averaged with 2.0 % inflation. Deferred rights are regulated with wage growth, currently 3.75 %. The recommendations are only a starting point: each undertaking sets its own assumptions from its own assessment of expected economic developments and the terms of its own plan, and movements up to the balance-sheet date can require updated figures when the balance-sheet date differs from the guidance date.

Legal basis: IAS 19 paragraphs 75–76, 83–86 and 87–91; NRS 6 Pensjonskostnader; lov om foretakspensjon; folketrygdloven with forskrift om beregning av lønnsveksten som skal benyttes ved regulering av grunnbeløpet og alderspensjon i folketrygden.