New pension assumptions for 30 September: discount rates flat, return up

Norsk RegnskapsStiftelse has updated its recommended pension assumptions as of 30 September 2026Regnskapsstiftelsen, the quarterly input for measuring defined-benefit obligations under IAS 19 and NRS 6. Regnskap Norge reported the update for preparers, linking to the NRS guidance NRS(V) Pensjonsforutsetninger (October 2026). The assumptions are only a starting point for each company's own assessment: conditions in the company or the scheme can require deviations, and schemes with a materially different profile — for example a closed scheme with a shorter horizon — must use the supplementary appendices for shorter-duration profiles.

For that normal open scheme, the recommended assumptions as of 30 September 2026 are: discount rate on covered bonds (OMF) 4.0 per centRegnskapsstiftelsen; discount rate on government bonds 3.6 per centRegnskapsstiftelsen; expected return on assets placed with a life insurer (NRS 6) approximately 6.0 per centRegnskapsstiftelsen; average wage growth including career supplement approximately 4.0 per cent; regulation of pensions being earned in folketrygden approximately 3.75 per cent; pension regulation (minimum/maximum) for schemes under the foretakspensjonsloven 3.2/3.5 per cent; pension regulation in public-sector schemes approximately 2.75 per cent; regulation of deferred rights in public or quasi-public schemes approximately 3.75 per cent; and expected inflation approximately 2.0 per cent. Discount rates, expected return, minimum pension regulation and public-sector pension regulation are stated to one decimal place; the remaining parameters to the nearest quarter point. Under NRS 6, only the government-bond and covered-bond (OMF) alternatives carry recommended parameters.

NRS characterises the update as small changes in the financial parameters: apart from expected return and the related minimum regulation, the assumptions are in practice unchangedRegnskapsstiftelsen. The 15-year rate has risen by 0.4 percentage pointsRegnskapsstiftelsen, lifting expected return and pension regulation in private schemes, while the discount rate is in practice unchangedRegnskapsstiftelsen because long rates have fallen and the effects offset each other. The long-term inflation component is estimated judgmentally at about 2.0 per cent, against Norges Bank's operational monetary-policy target of close to 2 per cent over time and three-year average inflation expectations from Statistics Norway and Norges Bank of about 2.3 per cent. The risk-free rate at a 15-year horizon is estimated at about 4.5 per cent, implying a real rate of about 2.5 per cent. Because the yield curve is falling 15–30 years out, the pension-regulation estimate as of 30 September 2026 has been reduced by 0.25 percentage pointsRegnskapsstiftelsen.

For preparers, three methodology points matter. First, measuring the discount rate requires converting the bond yield curve into a zero-coupon curve and extrapolating well beyond the longest observable Norwegian maturities — about 10 years for government bonds and few high-quality corporate bonds beyond 10 years — using interbank swap rates for the curvature, with the OMF spread estimated over the swap curve. Second, expected return should start from the risk-free rate plus a risk premium reflecting long-term asset allocation and the company should obtain an estimate of plan assets' fair value toward year-end. Third, wage growth means growth in the pensionable salary base only — bonuses, options and benefits in kind outside the base are excluded — and the guidance's real-wage curve assumes somewhat higher growth in the nearest years; closed schemes with older members should therefore assess career supplement separately, since it can be zero or negative.

Legal basis: IAS 19 (notably paragraphs 75–91 on unbiased, mutually consistent assumptions, market expectations at the reporting date, HQCB/government-bond discounting and salary-growth estimates) and NRS 6 (paragraph 6.50 permitting risk-free, government-bond or high-credit corporate-bond discount rates), as applied in NRS(V) Pensjonsforutsetninger (October 2026).